Saturday, June 20, 2020

The belief

Let's talk about what it is to live in this world through the lenses of Alain Souchon and his famous song: "Foule Sentimental" which directly translates to Sentimental Crowd. He is a famous French singer and songwriter who is able to ally philosophy and relativism in the way he writes. I will use the song as the basis for the post today.

 

A belief is one of the many psychological attitudes a person may have toward a proposition which, as we all more or less know or agree, is a content that represents a certain state of affairs. Good example:

 

(a) Cows are herbivores

 

Anybody who believes this statement has the psychological attitude of accepting that cows are herbivores. The person takes that content to be the case. Under normal circumstances, if asked whether the above statement (a) is true, she would assent. Assuming she's sincere and competent, she would voice her belief by stating (a). She could actually possibly state:

 

(b) "It is true that cows are herbivores"

(c) "It is the case that cows are herbivores"

 

That person might in fact use many other statements or sentences that are logically equivalent to these statements.

 

In any case what I am trying to get at is what this world offers to us, the world we live in. In his song Souchon states that this world offers us so many things that:

 

We are made to believe

That happiness is to have

Our wardrobes full of assets

In scorn of us, [it's] pathetic because

 

Sentimental crowd that we are

We are pining for ideals

Attracted to the stars, to sails

[To] only non-commercial things

Sentimental crowd that we are

 

Souchon makes this statement based on his own analysis of the world we live in. This statement is made based on examples he cites throughout the song. The key element for me here is the fact that he calls all of us a "Sentimental Crowd", should we consider this a fact or a belief? From the definition stated above we know that whether we hold a belief, disbelief, or nonbelief toward a proposition, thinking logically can help in developing the attitude that would be most adequate. This is important, since our beliefs are the building blocks of our reasoning.

 

For me, I believe in this statement, in light of recent events across the globe all of us can see that the exasperation of people's feelings have enhanced the sentiment of inequality that many of us have been feeling for years to become a well shared feeling. We are indeed a "Sentimental crowd".

 

The next level of the belief hinges on its accuracy and truth. An acceptable degree of accuracy requires the belief to represent or get close to representing the facts.

 

We live in the world of high consumption; the more we own, the better we feel about ourselves, and the more we get, the more we want. For me, Souchon is absolutely right in his depiction of human kind, especially when he describes the ideals as being non-commercial things, at least for me. I mentioned above that accuracy has a lot to do with degree as it depends on the contents of beliefs, and some contents are closer to representing the facts than others. Some beliefs are thus more accurate than others, but from my previous post ("The numbers") we also know that statistical syllogism and matter of fact statements need the right context and facts to be considered true.

 

In the reality of things we can accept that truth and falsity do not depend on degree at all. A belief can be true or false simply because we cannot say that a belief is more or less true. A belief cannot be partially true otherwise it is not a belief on the other end the same belief can hold the virtues of accuracy and truth at the same time.

 

The belief of Alain Souchon in his song for example can be both accurate and true, accurate because based on the description he provides and the depiction attached to it.

The virtues of accuracy and truth can be lacking for a belief and still that belief can be reasonable. A belief is reasonable if and only if it is well supported , otherwise it is deemed unreasonable. Since beliefs of different types can be supported differently. In other words, what's required for a belief to be reasonable varies according to what sort of belief it is. In Alain Souchon song, his belief can be described as empirical (or observational) and what is required for his belief to be reasonable differs from what will be required by non observational beliefs to be reasonable.

 

Many philosophers have provided remarks on each case, in essence they say that a conceptual belief is reasonable if and only if its content is such that to understand it is to realize that it is true. Such beliefs are those that go without saying to anyone who understands their contents such as a "sister is a female sibling" for example.

 

The empirical beliefs have to be supported either by evidence or by inference from evidence. We use evidence and inference as the ways to establish reasonableness and when it lacks either of these two aspects, they could be said to have instead a substantial degree of unreasonableness.

 

All I am trying to say is that many things in this world have been established as belief while lacking the support to make them what they claim to be, but are still considered as such because a general assumption has been made about them. I end this with another paragraph from the song:

 

There emerge

From those cardboard boxes

Washed-up people, obsolete

And sad and without any pluses

Desires that distress us

Are imposed on us

From the moment we are born they take us, come off it

For bloody idiots, whereas we are

 


Saturday, June 6, 2020

The numbers


Some years ago, I had a statistics class where our teacher used a very telling example:

'If I survey 3 dentists, and 2 of them recommend a specific toothpaste or dental hygiene tool, can I go ahead and make the statement: 2 out of 3 dentists recommend such a toothpaste?"

An argument consists of a conclusion that makes a claim of some sort and one or more premises intended to provide support for that conclusion. There are 2 different ways such support can be offered, depending on whether the premises aim at guaranteeing the truth of the conclusion or at simply providing some reasons for it. We can say that a conclusive relation between certain premises and a claim is a mark of a deductive argument, and a nonconclusive relation to that of an inductive argument. All arguments exemplify either one or the other of these two relations.

Why do I mention the above?

Let's talk about "black on black crimes" for a minute. I was inspired by a recent thread on Twitter by Michael Harriot, a senior writer at The Roots. I wanted to dive in what he says and write my own version of it with my own calculations.

As a numbers person myself, I always remember that a lot of arguments rest on fallacies. Such as in our above example where a hasty generalization affects the enumerative induction that 67% of dentists will recommend a specific toothpaste while only 3 have been interviewed. See where I'm going? A representative number of dentists was not observed to draw this conclusion. This is a mistake of trying to draw a conclusion about all things of a certain kind having a certain feature on the basis of one having it, or a sample that is neither comprehensive nor randomly selected like a serious study will.

Let's get back to the numbers. By looking at the FBI website, we can find data about arrests, do remember that crimes were committed by the same person (room for duplication). We can use an assumption here, let's say that each crime (murder) was committed by a different black person. The results show 53% (5,025) were committed by black or African American.



The latest census tells us that there are 47 million black people in the US. Following the assumption we made earlier that each crime was committed by a different person, that means a ratio of 5025/47 million will yield that 99.989497% of black people not committing murders. By the same math, that also suggests that 99.994923% of white people did not commit murder.

The black population represents more or less 13% of the total US population, using the actual numbers it means 0.10% of black people committed murders and 0.005% of white did the same. In other words, as Michael Harriot beautifully stated:" I will need to meet 10,000 different people before I meet a murderer". We can do the same calculations using all the other crimes, but I think my point is becoming clearer here. The robustness of methodology provides more reliable statistics that can be use in arguments. This argument about: "there are more black on black" crimes is basically not what it seems to be.

Let's dive into another aspect, we know that generally without context and history, it is easy to use statistical syllogism. This is basically an inductive argument whereby a certain feature is ascribed to some case or cases on the basis of their being subsumed within a larger class of things, some of which, sometimes many, have the ascribed feature. In our example, we see that the underneath calculation yielded a different result than what is generally heard.

We know that crimes have a context, any crime has some kind of sociological aspect associated with it. We know that sociologists describe crime as a whole as being an economic phenomenon so this suggests that the people with less will commit more crime, in other words people who are poor are more likely to commit crime. We will dive in this reality in another post as it is a little more complicated than this even though we know there is a correlation between crimes and inequality in society.

So to come back to that anecdote from the beginning, we see that we can make the numbers tell any story if we do not have to prove anything. The definition of statistics includes "large quantities" when we want to make inferences and this matters when anyone wants to use "stats" to justify a point or an argument. Always look for the underlying truth in anything that uses numbers, the same statistics could tell a different story

Until next time.

Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments below!

Oscar the talkative Platypus.

The rant

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